The ruling Civil Contract party appears to be facing serious hardships and, some would say, thank God for that. Perhaps it was not a moment too soon, still reeling from the shock of the parliamentary elections, the party has reportedly entered a new period of internal turmoil, with growing tensions and power struggles within its ranks. Following the removal of the National assembly president Alen Simonyan, rumors suggest that the next official to fall may be the prime minister's chief of staff, Arayik Harutyunyan, who is widely known in government circles as the Grey Cardinal. According to “Hraparak” newspaper reports, Harutyunyan has recently applied to Armenian criminal figures residing in the United States, allegedly seeking their assistance in the illicit transfer of his financial assets.

Harutyunyan may have already secured such assistance from his compatriots and transferred his assets to a safer country, where he is reportedly considering building his family's future. He is not expecting to be reappointed as chief of staff to the prime minister because, as head of Civil Contract's election campaign headquarters, he assured Nikol Pashinyan that the party received at least 65 percent of the vote. In the end, however, the party reportedly failed to secure even the 50 percent plus one vote needed for a majority. The ruling party obtained only 49 percent of the vote despite widespread electoral violations and fraud, including apparent theft of approximately 60,000 votes from the Prosperous Armenia Party. According to the report, these results enraged Pashinyan, who subsequently held a harsh and uncompromising meeting with members of his inner circle.

Arayik Harutyunyan is currently in the United States, where he is spending his vacation from July 1 to 24. Afterward, he is expected to decide on his next steps or perhaps he has already made that decision. Centrifugal processes appear to have begun within the ruling establishment, a development that could conventionally be described as a rat race — or better yet, jumping ship — with key figures seemingly scrambling to secure their own futures. Mkhitar Hayrapetyan, one of the founding members of Civil Contract, has already announced that he is relinquishing his parliamentary mandate and stepping down as minister of High-Tech Industry. It is said that the idea of the 2018 Gyumri–Yerevan march, which ultimately led to the change of government, originally came from him. According to prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, whose explanation is clearly viewed with skepticism, Hayrapetyan voluntarily decided to leave the executive branch in order to pursue opportunities in the private sector.

According to certain reports, Hayrapetyan and several other prominent Civil Contract party members attempted to pursue their own political agenda behind Pashinyan's back, while also seeking to influence other factions within the party. At this stage Vagharshak Hakobyan has likewise expressed his intention to continue his career in the private sector, announcing that he does not intend to take up a parliamentary mandate. Perhaps the most dramatic development is that Gegham Nazaryan has declared what the article describes as a "mandate strike," refusing to assume a parliamentary seat. A father who lost his son in the war, Nazaryan entered the eighth National Assembly on the opposition Armenia Alliance ticket and was, at the time, one of Pashinyan's fiercest critics. Before long, however, he switched sides and began, according to the article, providing various forms of support to Civil Contract. Having served his purpose, he has now been cast aside by the ruling party as something no longer of use.

In short, each of the candidates has his own reason or excuse for giving up his parliamentary mandate, though in most cases these explanations appear to be fabricated. For example, Civil Contract-affiliated Talin community mayor Tavros Sapeyan justifies his decision to relinquish his mandate by claiming that he wants to devote himself fully to serving his community, because he is convinced that without him the community would “fall apart.” According to media expert Tigran Kocharyan, these are not random figures. He argues that they are largely individuals connected to businessman Khachatur Sukiasyan’s sphere of influence and that “it cannot be ruled out that one day they may turn against Pashinyan in an attempt to remove him from power.” In the expert’s view, by pushing these individuals out of his team, Pashinyan is attempting to prevent a possible “palace coup.”

Kocharyan goes even further, arguing that the Civil Contract leader has sensed a threat from Alen Simonyan and from those members of the party who are considered Sukiasyan’s allies, both in the legislature and the executive branch. According to the expert’s reasoning, Pashinyan will attempt to replace these figures with what is called a Turkish “brigade,” a derogatory political epithet that some members of the opposition have used during internal parliamentary disputes to criticize the government's foreign policy approaches, and more precisely old brigadier Alen whose fate has already been successfully determined. He has been replaced by Ruben Rubinyan, who is seen as favoring closer relations with Turkey. Pashinyan may believe that the danger threatening his position as prime minister has already been neutralized and that he can finally breathe a sigh of relief. But that may prove to be only an illusion.

“Hayatsk Yerevanits” Journal