We obviously no longer enjoy the times of complementarity in the post-Soviet space. Many will remember complementarity, the simultaneous maintenance, and the development of normal relations with both Russia and the West, as the main thesis of Armenia's foreign policy concept during Robert Kocharyan's tenure. Moreover, despite the Western sanctions against Iran, we managed to maintain the best possible relations with our century-old neighbor as well.
In any case, it seemed possible to build lasting balanced relations based on complementarity. Official Yerevan justified its "both-and" policy to the West with the fact that Armenia could not circumscribe its economic and integration relations with both Iran and Russia under blockade. In the same way, it was explained to Russia that the West, where we also had a large Diaspora, was the main financial donor of Armenia, so that circumscribing its relations would have a negative impact on the activity of the country. Iran similarly understood our fears and showed forgiveness when we were forced to join the sanctions against it.
The situation has changed now. The West requires every party to make a clear choice of being either with Russia or against it. The punishment of the other party will be inevitable and could not be delayed for the policy pursued in favor of one party, and vice versa. With the strengthening of China, the US is losing its dominant role, understanding that it cannot allow such a thing to happen for both internal, external and economic reasons. China's economic and Russia's nuclear powers are the greatest challenges for the United States. The United States is in a mediated and Russia is in actual direct conflict in Ukraine where a life-or-death confrontation is taking place.
Most countries naturally do not want to make such a choice. Nonetheless, the changing international order makes that choice compulsory, based on the principle of "either-or". In case of making a choice, a party may either end up in a "meat grinder", as Ukraine is today, or it is likely to be subject to economic sanctions if it fails to organize an "anti-authoritarian" revolution in the target country. This is the general situation.
As for the situation in the South Caucasus, they wanted to open an anti-Russian front in Georgia, however, the Georgian government did not allow it. Anyone who follows the events in Georgia knows the scandalous story related to US and EU ambassadors, when several MPs of the ruling party of Georgia accused the ambassadors, in their words, of attempting to open a second front against Russia in Georgia.
In diplomatic terms, Turkey has managed to maneuver between the West and Russia with the precision of a tightrope walker, becoming a mediator or, more precisely, pretending to be one in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. When we say Turkey, we should also imply Azerbaijan. Now, neither the West nor Russia will go to a confrontation with the Turkey-Azerbaijan couple since both might have big losses. Turkey is playing on the edge of opportunities. This is Azerbaijan's golden hour, which should be used to the maximum, as we see in the brash and daring behavior of Azerbaijan in Artsakh.
Armenia is the weak link, at the expense of which others solve their problems, compromise, and come to an agreement with each other. This is a world rule, whether in interstate relations or at the individual level. At the same time, Armenia is in the midst of internal divisions, it has no diplomacy, no economy, the political system has failed, where the government is campaigning for defeat, and the political and public sphere is full of agents of influence serving foreign interests, and so is the press.
It is painful, but this is the reality. In nature, there are problems that are difficult to solve, there are those that seem almost unsolvable, while a way out can always be found, in any situation. Sometimes the circumstances themselves dictate the solution.
Presidential elections in Turkey will be held on June 8, 2023, and that country has already plunged into the whirlpool of electoral divisions. If Erdogan is re-elected, Turkey will enter into a confrontation with the West due to many problems. If a pro-Western figure is elected, relations with Russia will worsen, which will affect the problems of Armenia and Artsakh. In short, the geopolitical situation is changeable, and we have to be ready for any development, take the right direction and be able to get out of the weak link.