Tuesday, 29 April 2025

E Editorial

Is Armenia’s destiny determined in Ukraine?

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British Indian Army officer and diplomat General Hastings Lionel Ismay  was the first Secretary General of NATO from 1952 to 1957. He is known in history for a quote on the purpose of NATO that became а popular maxim: NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”

Ismay  is famous for another remarkable expression, which also refers to the future of NATO: "I am convinced that the present solution is only a partial one, aimed at guarding the heart. It must grow until the whole free world gets under one umbrella." It is clear that first of all, Europe should be collected under the umbrella of NATO.

The tense atmosphere in the world today, which breathes war, seems to be programmed by Ismay's formulas. During his time there was a "Cold War" that divided the world into two parts, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the "umbrella" got the opportunity to grow. Now there is a possibility of a new "cold" or even "hot" war between Russia and the collective West. This is a very dangerous prospect, even if there is no war (it is impossible to imagine it between the nuclear powers).

As we can see, NATO enlargement was planned at the very beginning of that organization and had an ideological basis to unite the "free world" - Eastern Europe, which was then under the influence of the Soviet Empire. There are different philosophical perceptions and beliefs about freedom and democracy, but it is no secret that the world is built on selfish interests, and peace and war are determined by the principle of balance of power.

Now that balance is disturbed. The issue of peace is determined by the consolidation of the balance of new forces in the international arena by fixing the balance of new forces, which, in fact, is the so-called new world order, around which new agreements must be made. Now it is for these new agreements that the situation has heated up. Due to the Artsakh war, the balance of forces in the South Caucasus was also disturbed. And it does not refer only to the balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is also about the balance of power that existed before the 44-day war between Russia, Turkey and Iran. Turkey is a member of NATO or, as high-ranking American officials say, a "valuable ally", Iran is its official enemy, and our strategic ally Russia is also on the way to being declared an official enemy. It is clear from such an arrangement that what is happening in Ukraine is directly related to us. And maybe we are in a much more vulnerable position than Ukraine itself? It's something to think about. It is not ruled out that the fate of Armenia will be decided by the final outcome of the developments around Ukraine.

The Armenian Center for National and International Studies

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