The reality of an emerging multipolar world order is no longer in doubt, although its exact nature is not factually perceived in government circles. What does a multipolar system entail? What are the key defining characteristics of this new global architecture? Judging by recent geopolitical developments—such as the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, which has persisted for nearly three years; the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh Armenians from their homeland; the unfolding Middle Eastern processes initiated in Syria; and other significant events—it can be concluded that the era of empires may be returning.
All indications suggest that the world's major powers are preparing to reorganize, form alliances, and implement collective governance based on new principles and rules. This includes defining fresh terms of coexistence and competition to establish control over resources, strategic areas, markets, trade routes, and raw materials. The actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the United States in Greenland, China in the Pacific Ocean, Turkey in Syria, and Israel in Palestine appear to be strategic maneuvers aimed at securing advantageous positions in anticipation of the new world order.
We currently find ourselves between two global systems. The old one has collapsed, and the new one has yet to take shape, leaving us unable to rely on either. Consequently, we must abandon the notion of inviolable borders and the principles of fundamental human rights and freedoms—concepts central to the bipolar and unipolar world order established since 1948. The era of nation-states and nationalism is fading, making way for empires and imperial practices. Whether this is good or bad, we leave it to the experts to judge.
One thing is clear: Armenia's current leadership remains rooted in the past, unable to comprehend or adapt to the rapid changes taking place globally. Armenia stands on the brink of war. The government's actions are wholly inadequate to address the current challenges. Prime minister Pashinyan oscillates between Russia and the European Union, failing to take decisive actions aligned with the demands of the moment. Meanwhile, in his spare time free from cycling and other fruitless pursuits he caters to Aliyev’s incessant demands and preconditions.
Externally, Armenia faces open warnings about its dual allegiances. The country cannot simultaneously pursue membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and strive to join the European Union (EU), a futile act that yields no tangible benefits. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk has warned of catastrophic economic consequences should Armenia sever ties with the EAEU. He has also emphasized that Armenia’s potential accession to the EU is “incompatible” with its continued membership in the Russian-led trade bloc, which currently includes five former Soviet states.
This view is echoed by experts from the prominent geopolitical intelligence platform Strategic Forecasting Inc. (Stratfor), which notes in a recent report on geopolitical predictions that “for the Trump administration, close ties with Baku are a priority as a counterbalance to the regional influence of Russia, Iran, and China.”
Pashinyan’s inexplicable inaction exacerbates the situation. Under the pretext of being infected with the coronavirus, he even refused to attend the Eurasian Supreme Economic Council meeting on December 26, despite Armenia’s status as the presiding country of the union. The EAEU, which includes Armenia, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, is an integral component of the multipolar world. As Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked during the Supreme Council’s meeting in Uzbekistan, “Our union has been established as one of the independent and self-sufficient centers of the emerging multipolar world.”
It is evident that once the key players of the new world order emerge, global and regional futures will be shaped around their interests. Countries excluded from these projects will inevitably serve the interests of others. Regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, Russia, and even Azerbaijan have already begun positioning themselves for a prominent role in this new order. In today’s world, the right to a meaningful place belongs to those who fight for it. Recognizing this reality is the least we can do.